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Tiffany Smith
                                  Patrick Barlow
Statistical and Research Design Consultants, OMERAD
 Several studies have reported the error rate in
 reporting and/or interpreting statistics in the
 medical literature is between 30-90% (Novak et
 al., 2006).

 Understanding   basic statistical concepts will
 allow you to become a more critical consumer of
 the medical literature, and ultimately be able to
 produce better research and make better clinical
 decisions.
Descriptive Statistics

Parametric Statistics

Non-Parametric Statistics
 Null Hypothesis
 Alternative Hypothesis
 Mean
 Standard Deviation
 Correlation
 Confidence Interval
 Fitthe statistics to the research question, not the
  other way around!
 First, ask yourself, “Am I interested in….
     Describing a sample or outcome?”
     Looking at how groups differ?”
     Looking at how outcomes are related?”
     Looking at changes over time?”
 Second,  “How am I measuring my outcomes?”
 Finally, “How is my outcome distributed in the
  sample?”
 DescriptiveStatistics
 Parametric Statistics
     Common tests of relationships
         Pearson r
         Linear/multiple regression
     Common tests of group differences
         Independent t-test
         Between subjects analysis of variance (ANOVA)
     Common tests of repeated measures
         Dependent t-test
         Within subjects ANOVA
 Activity
 Numbers used to describe the sample
 They do not actually test any hypotheses (or yield any
  p-values)
 Types:
       Measures of Center -
           Mean
           Median
           Mode
       Measures of Spread -
           Quartiles
           Standard Deviation
           Range
           Variance
       Frequencies
 Most  powerful type of statistics we use
 Researchers must make sure their data meets a
  number of assumptions (or parameters) before
  these tests can be used properly.
     Some key assumptions
         Normality
         Independence of observations
 Inresearch, you always want to use parametric
 statistics if possible.
Pearson r correlation
Linear/Multiple Regression
 What    is it?
    A statistical analysis that tests the relationship
     between two continuous variables.
 Commonly         Associated Terms:
    Bivariate correlation, relationship, r-value, scatterplot,
     association, direction, magnitude.
No Relationship:     Weak Relationship:
     r ≈ |.00|             r ≈ |.10|




 Moderate
Relationship:
 r ≈ |.30|           Strong Relationship: r > .50




                                                    11
Each has a Pearson
                                Correlation of r=.82, is & is
                                        statistically
                                             significant




                                                                                  12
Anscombe, F.J., Graphs in Statistical Analysis, American Statistican, 27, 17-21
 What    you read:
    Study found a relationship between age and number of
     medications an individual is taking, r=.35, p = .03.
 What    to interpret:
    Results show r = .35, p = .03, R2=.12
 How    to interpret:
    There is a weak, significant positive relationship
     between age and number of medications an individual
     is taking. As age increases, number of medications
     also increases.
 What is it?
   A statistical
                analysis that tests the relationship
    between multiple predictor variables and one
    continuous outcome variable.
     Predictors: Any number of continuous or
      dichotomous variables, e.g. age, anxiety, SES
     Outcome: 1 Continuous variable, e.g. ER visits per
      Month
 Commonly Associated Terms:
   Multivariate, beta weight, r2-value,   model,
    forward/backward regression,
    sequential/hierarchical regression,
    standard/simultaneous regression,
    statistical/stepwise regression.
                                                           14
   What to interpret?
     p-values (<.05)
     R2 Value, magnitude of the relationship B/beta weights:
      B/beta < 1 = protective effect/negative relationship, beta >
      1 = positive relationship.
   How to interpret?
     B(β) is positive (e.g. 1.25): as the predictor increases
      by 1 unit (1lbs to 2lbs), the outcome variable also
      increases by B(β) (LDL Cholesterol increases by 1.25
      mg/dl).
     B(β) is negative (e.g. -1.25): as the predictor
      increases by 1 unit (1lbs to 2lbs), the outcome variable
      decreases by B(β) (LDL decreases by 1.25 mg/dl).
 What      you read
Table 3: Predictors of Number of Surgical Site Infections
                            Regression Coefficient1
      Predictor                                                p-value2
                           B(SE)                 β
Length of Stay            .25 (.06)             .30             <.001
Age                      -.75 (.05)            -.45             <.001
1B = Unstandardized coefficient, SE=standard error, and β = standardized

coefficient
2-Overall: F(2, 317)=17.19, p<.001, R=.31, R2 =.10


   What      to interpret:
        “B’s” for each predictor: LoS=.25 and Age= -.75
        p-value of each predictor: both <.001
        p-value for the model: <.001.
        R2 value for the model: .10
 How    to interpret:
    Overall: Both length of stay and age significantly
     predict a patient’s number of surgical site infections,
     and account for 10% of the variance.
    For Length of Stay: For every additional day a
     patient spends in the hospital, their number of
     surgical site infections increases by .25
    For Age: For every additional year of age, a patient’s
     number of surgical site infections decreases by .75
Commonly Used Statistics in Medical Research Part I
Independent t-test
Between Subjects Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
 What    is it?
    Tests the difference between two groups on a
     single, continuous dependent variable.
 Commonly         associated terms:
    Two sample t-test, student’s t-test, means, group
     means, standard deviations, mean differences, group
     difference, confidence interval, group comparison.
 What    to interpret?
    p-values (<.05)
    Mean differences and standard deviations
    Confidence intervals
 How    to interpret?
    There is a significant difference between the two
     groups where one group has a significantly
     higher/lower score on the dependent variable than the
     other.
 What    you read:
    Patients admitted to “academic” hospital clinics
     (M=.50, SD=.40) had lower average 90-day
     readmissions than patients seen by non-academic
     clinics (M=1.5, SD=.75), p = .02.
 What    to interpret:
    _____________________________
    _____________________________
    _____________________________
 How    to interpret:
    ____________________________________________
     ____________________________________________
 What      is it?
    Tests the difference among more than two groups on a
     single, continuous variable.
        Post-Hoc tests are required to examine where the differences
         are.
 Commonly           associated terms:
    F-test, interactions, post-hoc tests (tukey HSD,
     bonferroni, scheffe, dunnett).
 What       to interpret?
    p-values (<.05)
        Main effect: Shows overall significance
        Post-hoc tests: shows specific group differences
    Mean differences, standard deviations
 How      to interpret?
    Main Effect: There was an overall significant
     difference among the groups of the independent
     variable on the dependent variable.
    Post-Hoc: Same interpretation as an independent t-
     test
   What you read:
       A researcher looks at differences in number of side effects
        patients had on three difference drugs (A, B, and C).
           Main effect: Overall F=20.10, p=.01
           Post-hoc: Comparison of Drug “A” to Drug “B” shows average
            side effects to be 4(SD=2.5) and 7(SD=4.8), respectively, p=.04.
   What to interpret:
     _____________________________
     _____________________________
   How to interpret:
       ________________________________________________
        ________________________________________________
       ________________________________________________
        ________________________________________________
Dependent t-test
Within Subjects Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
   What is it?
       Tests the differences for one group between two time-points
        or matched pairs
   Commonly Associated Terms:
       Pre and posttest, matched pairs, paired samples, time.
   What to interpret?
     p-values (<.05)
     Mean change between measurements (i.e. over time or
      between pairs)
   How to interpret:?
       There is a significant difference between the pretest and
        posttest where the score on the posttest was significantly
        higher/lower on the dependent variable than the pretest.
 What    you read:
    An article shows a difference in average number of
     COPD-related readmissions before (M=1.5, SD=2.0)
     and after (M=.05, SD=.90) a patient education
     intervention, p=.08.
 What    to interpret:
    _____________________________
    _____________________________
 How   to interpret:
    ____________________________________________
     ____________________________________________
     ____________________________________________
   What is it?
       A statistical analysis that tests differences of one group
        between two or more time-points or matched pairs (e.g.
        pretest, posttest, & follow-up or treatment “A”
        patient, treatment “B” matched patient, & placebo matched
        patient).
   Commonly Associated Terms:
       Multiple time-points/matched pairs, repeated measures, post-
        hoc.
   What to interpret?
       Main effect: p-values
       Post-hoc: p-values, mean change, direction of change.
   How to interpret:
       Main Effect – There was an overall significant difference
        among the time points/matched pairs on the dependent
        variable.
       Post-Hoc: Same as a dependent t-test.
   What you read:
       An article shows a difference in average number of COPD-
        related readmissions before (M=1.5, SD=2.0) and after
        (M=.05, SD=.90), and six months following a patient
        education intervention (M=0.80, SD=3.0).
           Main effect: Overall F=3.59, p=.12.
   What to interpret:
     p-value=.12, not statistically significant
     Mean change=1.0 fewer readmissions at post-intervention

   How to interpret:
       The number of COPD-related readmissions did not
        significantly change among any of the the three time
        points.
Other Types of ANOVAs
             Conclusion
   Mixed ANOVA: Used when comparing more than one group over
    more than one time-point on a measure
       Example – Males vs. females, before and after smoking cessation
        intervention – Average cigarettes per day

   Factorial ANOVA: Comparing two or more separate
    independent variables on one dependent variable.
        Example – Where the patient was seen (UTH, HSM, or UFP), AND
         Whether or not the diabetes regimen was intensified – Average
         readmissions

   Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA): Examining the differences
    among groups while controlling for an additional variable
        Example – Whether or not the diabetes regimen was intensified,
         controlling for baseline A1C – Average readmissions

        All of these methods are used to test interaction effects
 Using complicated statistics give the researcher
 several advantages:
    Reduced statistical error
    Ability to look at complex relationships
    Can control for confounders
    Allows for a more complete and in-depth
     interpretation of the phenomenon. No phenomenon
     you study exists in a vacuum!
Questions?
   
Test Name
 Commonly Associated Terms
    Those that are bolded are terms specific to the test in
     question
 What      to interpret
    What to look for to understand the
     relevance/importance
        p-values, confidence, mean differences, effect size, etc.
 How      to interpret
    Provides test-specific ways to interpret results
 Non-Parametric           Equivalent (where applicable)
Remember:
                     
Just because a finding is not significant does not mean that it is not
    meaningful. You should always consider the effect size and
 context of the research when making a decision about whether or
                not any finding is clinically relevant.
Work together (in pairs) to answer the questions on the
handout using your “Commonly Used Statistics” resource.
      Be prepared to share how you found your answers.
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Commonly Used Statistics in Medical Research Part I

  • 1. Tiffany Smith Patrick Barlow Statistical and Research Design Consultants, OMERAD
  • 2.  Several studies have reported the error rate in reporting and/or interpreting statistics in the medical literature is between 30-90% (Novak et al., 2006).  Understanding basic statistical concepts will allow you to become a more critical consumer of the medical literature, and ultimately be able to produce better research and make better clinical decisions.
  • 4.  Null Hypothesis  Alternative Hypothesis  Mean  Standard Deviation  Correlation  Confidence Interval
  • 5.  Fitthe statistics to the research question, not the other way around!  First, ask yourself, “Am I interested in….  Describing a sample or outcome?”  Looking at how groups differ?”  Looking at how outcomes are related?”  Looking at changes over time?”  Second, “How am I measuring my outcomes?”  Finally, “How is my outcome distributed in the sample?”
  • 6.  DescriptiveStatistics  Parametric Statistics  Common tests of relationships  Pearson r  Linear/multiple regression  Common tests of group differences  Independent t-test  Between subjects analysis of variance (ANOVA)  Common tests of repeated measures  Dependent t-test  Within subjects ANOVA  Activity
  • 7.  Numbers used to describe the sample  They do not actually test any hypotheses (or yield any p-values)  Types:  Measures of Center -  Mean  Median  Mode  Measures of Spread -  Quartiles  Standard Deviation  Range  Variance  Frequencies
  • 8.  Most powerful type of statistics we use  Researchers must make sure their data meets a number of assumptions (or parameters) before these tests can be used properly.  Some key assumptions  Normality  Independence of observations  Inresearch, you always want to use parametric statistics if possible.
  • 10.  What is it?  A statistical analysis that tests the relationship between two continuous variables.  Commonly Associated Terms:  Bivariate correlation, relationship, r-value, scatterplot, association, direction, magnitude.
  • 11. No Relationship: Weak Relationship: r ≈ |.00| r ≈ |.10| Moderate Relationship: r ≈ |.30| Strong Relationship: r > .50 11
  • 12. Each has a Pearson Correlation of r=.82, is & is statistically significant 12 Anscombe, F.J., Graphs in Statistical Analysis, American Statistican, 27, 17-21
  • 13.  What you read:  Study found a relationship between age and number of medications an individual is taking, r=.35, p = .03.  What to interpret:  Results show r = .35, p = .03, R2=.12  How to interpret:  There is a weak, significant positive relationship between age and number of medications an individual is taking. As age increases, number of medications also increases.
  • 14.  What is it?  A statistical analysis that tests the relationship between multiple predictor variables and one continuous outcome variable.  Predictors: Any number of continuous or dichotomous variables, e.g. age, anxiety, SES  Outcome: 1 Continuous variable, e.g. ER visits per Month  Commonly Associated Terms:  Multivariate, beta weight, r2-value, model, forward/backward regression, sequential/hierarchical regression, standard/simultaneous regression, statistical/stepwise regression. 14
  • 15. What to interpret?  p-values (<.05)  R2 Value, magnitude of the relationship B/beta weights: B/beta < 1 = protective effect/negative relationship, beta > 1 = positive relationship.  How to interpret?  B(β) is positive (e.g. 1.25): as the predictor increases by 1 unit (1lbs to 2lbs), the outcome variable also increases by B(β) (LDL Cholesterol increases by 1.25 mg/dl).  B(β) is negative (e.g. -1.25): as the predictor increases by 1 unit (1lbs to 2lbs), the outcome variable decreases by B(β) (LDL decreases by 1.25 mg/dl).
  • 16.  What you read Table 3: Predictors of Number of Surgical Site Infections Regression Coefficient1 Predictor p-value2 B(SE) β Length of Stay .25 (.06) .30 <.001 Age -.75 (.05) -.45 <.001 1B = Unstandardized coefficient, SE=standard error, and β = standardized coefficient 2-Overall: F(2, 317)=17.19, p<.001, R=.31, R2 =.10  What to interpret:  “B’s” for each predictor: LoS=.25 and Age= -.75  p-value of each predictor: both <.001  p-value for the model: <.001.  R2 value for the model: .10
  • 17.  How to interpret:  Overall: Both length of stay and age significantly predict a patient’s number of surgical site infections, and account for 10% of the variance.  For Length of Stay: For every additional day a patient spends in the hospital, their number of surgical site infections increases by .25  For Age: For every additional year of age, a patient’s number of surgical site infections decreases by .75
  • 19. Independent t-test Between Subjects Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
  • 20.  What is it?  Tests the difference between two groups on a single, continuous dependent variable.  Commonly associated terms:  Two sample t-test, student’s t-test, means, group means, standard deviations, mean differences, group difference, confidence interval, group comparison.
  • 21.  What to interpret?  p-values (<.05)  Mean differences and standard deviations  Confidence intervals  How to interpret?  There is a significant difference between the two groups where one group has a significantly higher/lower score on the dependent variable than the other.
  • 22.  What you read:  Patients admitted to “academic” hospital clinics (M=.50, SD=.40) had lower average 90-day readmissions than patients seen by non-academic clinics (M=1.5, SD=.75), p = .02.  What to interpret:  _____________________________  _____________________________  _____________________________  How to interpret:  ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________
  • 23.  What is it?  Tests the difference among more than two groups on a single, continuous variable.  Post-Hoc tests are required to examine where the differences are.  Commonly associated terms:  F-test, interactions, post-hoc tests (tukey HSD, bonferroni, scheffe, dunnett).
  • 24.  What to interpret?  p-values (<.05)  Main effect: Shows overall significance  Post-hoc tests: shows specific group differences  Mean differences, standard deviations  How to interpret?  Main Effect: There was an overall significant difference among the groups of the independent variable on the dependent variable.  Post-Hoc: Same interpretation as an independent t- test
  • 25. What you read:  A researcher looks at differences in number of side effects patients had on three difference drugs (A, B, and C).  Main effect: Overall F=20.10, p=.01  Post-hoc: Comparison of Drug “A” to Drug “B” shows average side effects to be 4(SD=2.5) and 7(SD=4.8), respectively, p=.04.  What to interpret:  _____________________________  _____________________________  How to interpret:  ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________  ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________
  • 26. Dependent t-test Within Subjects Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
  • 27. What is it?  Tests the differences for one group between two time-points or matched pairs  Commonly Associated Terms:  Pre and posttest, matched pairs, paired samples, time.  What to interpret?  p-values (<.05)  Mean change between measurements (i.e. over time or between pairs)  How to interpret:?  There is a significant difference between the pretest and posttest where the score on the posttest was significantly higher/lower on the dependent variable than the pretest.
  • 28.  What you read:  An article shows a difference in average number of COPD-related readmissions before (M=1.5, SD=2.0) and after (M=.05, SD=.90) a patient education intervention, p=.08.  What to interpret:  _____________________________  _____________________________  How to interpret:  ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________
  • 29. What is it?  A statistical analysis that tests differences of one group between two or more time-points or matched pairs (e.g. pretest, posttest, & follow-up or treatment “A” patient, treatment “B” matched patient, & placebo matched patient).  Commonly Associated Terms:  Multiple time-points/matched pairs, repeated measures, post- hoc.  What to interpret?  Main effect: p-values  Post-hoc: p-values, mean change, direction of change.  How to interpret:  Main Effect – There was an overall significant difference among the time points/matched pairs on the dependent variable.  Post-Hoc: Same as a dependent t-test.
  • 30. What you read:  An article shows a difference in average number of COPD- related readmissions before (M=1.5, SD=2.0) and after (M=.05, SD=.90), and six months following a patient education intervention (M=0.80, SD=3.0).  Main effect: Overall F=3.59, p=.12.  What to interpret:  p-value=.12, not statistically significant  Mean change=1.0 fewer readmissions at post-intervention  How to interpret:  The number of COPD-related readmissions did not significantly change among any of the the three time points.
  • 31. Other Types of ANOVAs Conclusion
  • 32. Mixed ANOVA: Used when comparing more than one group over more than one time-point on a measure  Example – Males vs. females, before and after smoking cessation intervention – Average cigarettes per day  Factorial ANOVA: Comparing two or more separate independent variables on one dependent variable.  Example – Where the patient was seen (UTH, HSM, or UFP), AND Whether or not the diabetes regimen was intensified – Average readmissions  Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA): Examining the differences among groups while controlling for an additional variable  Example – Whether or not the diabetes regimen was intensified, controlling for baseline A1C – Average readmissions All of these methods are used to test interaction effects
  • 33.  Using complicated statistics give the researcher several advantages:  Reduced statistical error  Ability to look at complex relationships  Can control for confounders  Allows for a more complete and in-depth interpretation of the phenomenon. No phenomenon you study exists in a vacuum!
  • 34. Questions?
  • 35. Test Name  Commonly Associated Terms  Those that are bolded are terms specific to the test in question  What to interpret  What to look for to understand the relevance/importance  p-values, confidence, mean differences, effect size, etc.  How to interpret  Provides test-specific ways to interpret results  Non-Parametric Equivalent (where applicable)
  • 36. Remember:  Just because a finding is not significant does not mean that it is not meaningful. You should always consider the effect size and context of the research when making a decision about whether or not any finding is clinically relevant.
  • 37. Work together (in pairs) to answer the questions on the handout using your “Commonly Used Statistics” resource. Be prepared to share how you found your answers.

Editor's Notes

  • #5: Null Hypothesis: The hypothesis that a difference or relationship between the variables does not exist. You are trying to reject this hypothesis in your test.Alternative Hypothesis: The hypothesis that a difference of relationship between the variables does exist. What you are trying to “prove” in statistical tests.Mean: A measure of central tendency that is the arithmetical average of a group of numbers. Standard Deviation: A measure of spread that quantifies how much the scores in a sample vary around the sample’s mean.Correlation: Implies a relationship (usually linear) between two variables. Terminology appropriately used when testing relationships between variables, but is commonly misused in other contexts.Confidence Interval: Derived from statistical tests. Provides 95% (usually) confidence that the true statistic of interest (i.e. mean, relationship, risk, etc.) lies within a given range. Greatly affected by things such as sample size and measurement error.
  • #9: Etc: sample size, spherecity…
  • #17: What to interpret:“B’s” for each predictor: LoS=.25 and Age= -.75p-value of each predictor: both &lt;.001p-value for the model: &lt;.001.R2 value for the model: .10