The Statistics Wars and Their Causalities (refs)

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The Statistics Wars and Their
Casualties
Deborah G Mayo
Dept of Philosophy, Virginia Tech
Research Associate, LSE
September 22, 2022
Workshop: The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties
LSE (CPNSS)

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Begin with a question: From
what perspective should we
view the statistics wars?
• The standpoint of the ordinary, skeptical
consumer of statistics
• Minimal requirement for evidence

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Requirement of the skeptical
statistical consumer
• We have evidence for a claim C only to the
extent C has been subjected to and passes a
test that would probably have found it flawed
or specifiably false, just if it is.
• This probability is the stringency or severity
with which it has passed the test.

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Applies to any methods now in use
• Whether for testing, estimation, prediction—or
solving a problem (formal or informal)

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2. Statistical Significance test battles
& their ironies
• Often fingered as the culprit of the replication crisis
• It’s too easy to get small P-values—critics say
• Replication crisis: It’s too hard to get small P-values
when others try to replicate with stricter controls

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• R.A. Fisher: it’s easy to lie with statistics by
selective reporting, (“political principle that anything
can be proved by statistics” (1955, 75))
• Sufficient finagling—cherry-picking, data-dredging,
multiple testing, optional stopping—may result in a
claim C appearing supported, even if it’s
unwarranted—biasing selection effects

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Error Statistics
This underwrites the key aim of statistical significance
tests:
• To bound the probabilities of erroneous
interpretations of data: error probabilities
A small part of a general methodology which I call
error statistics
(statistical tests, confidence intervals, resampling,
randomization)

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Fraud-busting and non-replication
based on P-values
• Remember when fraud-busters (Uri Simonsohn
and colleagues) used statistical significance tests
to expose fraud?
• data too good to be true, or
• inexplicable under sampling variation
(Smeesters, Sanna)
“Fabricated Data Detected by Statistics Alone” Simonsohn 2013

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• How is it that tools relied on to show fraud, QRPs,
lack of replication are said to be tools we can’t
trust?
(”P-values can’t be trusted unless they are used to
show P-values can’t be trusted”)
• Simmons et al. recommend “a 21 word solution”
to state stopping rules, hypotheses, etc. in
advance (Simmons et al., 2012)
• Yet some reforms are at odds with this

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3. Simple significance (Fisherian)
tests
“…to test the conformity of the particular data
under analysis with H0 in some respect….” (Mayo
and Cox 2006, p. 81)
…the P-value: the probability the test would yield
an even larger (or more extreme) value of a test
statistic T assuming chance variability or noise
NOT Pr(data|H0 )

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Testing reasoning
• Small P-values indicate* some underlying
discrepancy from H0 because very probably (1- P)
you would have seen a less impressive
difference were H0 true.
• This still isn’t evidence of a genuine statistical
effect H1 yet alone a scientific conclusion H*—only
abuses of tests (NHST?) commit these howlers
*(until an audit is conducted testing assumptions, I
use “indicate”)

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Neyman and Pearson tests (1933) put
Fisherian tests on firmer ground:
Introduces alternative hypotheses H0, H1
H0: μ ≤ 0 vs. H1: μ > 0
• Trade-off between Type I errors and Type II errors
• Restricts the inference to the statistical alternative—no
jumps to H* (within a model)
Tests of Statistical Hypotheses, statistical decision-making

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Fisher-Neyman
(pathological) battles
• The success of N-P optimal error control led to a
new paradigm in statistics, overshadows Fisher
• “being in the same building at University College
London brought them too close to one another”!
(Cox 2006, 195)

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Contemporary casualties of Fisher-
Neyman (N-P) battles
• N-P & Fisher tests claimed to be an “inconsistent
hybrid” where:
• Fisherians can’t use power; N-P testers can’t report
P-values (P =) but only fixed error probabilities (P <)
• In fact, Fisher & N-P recommended both pre-
data error probabilities and post-data P-value

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What really happened concerns
Fisher’s “fiducial probability”
The fallacy in familiar terms: Fisher claimed the
confidence level measures both error control and
post-data probability on statistical hypotheses
without prior probabilities—in special cases
But it leads to inconsistencies

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“[S]o many people assumed for so long
that the [fiducial] argument was correct.
They lacked the daring to question it.”
(Good 1971, p. 138).
• Neyman did, develops confidence
intervals (performance rationale)

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Do we need to know the history to get
beyond the statistics wars?
No, we shouldn’t be hamstrung by battles from 70,
80 or 90 years ago, or to what some of today’s
discussants think they were about.
“It’s the methods, stupid” (Mayo 2018, 164)

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• Key question remains (from the fiducial battle): how
to have a post data quantification of epistemic
warrant (but not a posterior probability)?
• Severity? Calibration?

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Sir David Cox’s statistical
philosophy
• We need to calibrate methods: how would they behave
in (actual or hypothetical) repeated sampling?
(performance)
o Weak repeated sampling: “any proposed method of
analysis that in repeated application would mostly
give misleading answers is fatally flawed”
(Cox 2006, 198)

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Good performance not sufficient for
an inference measure (post data)
Cox’s “weighing machine” example in 1958
How can we ensure the calibration is relevant,
(taking account of how the data were obtained)
without leading to the unique case, precluding error
probabilities? (Cox 2006, 198)
“Objectivity and Conditionality” (Cox and Mayo 2010)

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4. Rivals to error statistical accounts
condition on the unique case
All the evidence is via likelihood ratios (LR) of
hypotheses
Pr(x0;H1)/Pr(x0;H0)
The data x0 are fixed, while the hypotheses vary
• Any hypothesis that perfectly fits the data is
maximally likely

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All error probabilities violate the LP
• “Sampling distributions, significance levels,
power, all depend on something more [than the
likelihood function]–something that is irrelevant
in Bayesian inference–namely the sample
space.” (Lindley 1971, 436)

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Inference by
Bayes Theorem
The
Likelihood
Principle

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Inference by
Bayesian
Theorem
The
Likelihood
Principle
Forfeits
error
probabilities

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Many “reforms” offered as alternative
to significance tests, follow the LP
• “Bayes factors can be used in the complete
absence of a sampling plan…” (Bayarri et al. 2016,
100)
• “It seems very strange that a frequentist could not
analyze a given set of data…if the stopping rule is
not given….Data should be able to speak for
itself”. (Berger and Wolpert 1988, 78)
(Stopping Rule Principle)

In testing the mean of a
standard normal distribution
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The LP parallels the holy grail of
logics of induction C(h,e)
I was brought up on C(h,e), but it doesn’t work.
Popper (a falsificationist): “we shall simply deceive
ourselves if we think we can interpret C(h,e) as degree
of corroboration, or anything like it.” (Popper 1959,
418).
He never fleshed out severity

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Fisher, Neyman, Pearson were
allergic to the idea of a single rule
for ideally rational inference
• Their philosophy of statistics was pragmatic: to
control human biases.
(design, planning, RCTs, predesignated power)
• But there’s a link to formal statistics: the biases
directly alter the method’s error probabilities
• Not automatic, requires background knowledge

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5. Bayesians: we can block inferences
based on biasing selection effects
with prior beliefs
(without error probabilities)

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Casualties
• Doesn’t show what researchers had done wrong—
battle of beliefs
• The believability of data-dredged hypotheses is what
makes them so seductive
• Additional source of flexibility, priors as well as
biasing selection effects

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Peace Treaty (J. Berger 2003, 2006):
“default” (“objective”) priors
• Elicitation problems: “[V]irtually never would
different experts give prior distributions that even
overlapped” (J. Berger 2006, 392)
• Default priors are to prevent prior beliefs from
influencing the posteriors–data dominant

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Casualties
• “The priors are not to be considered expressions of
uncertainty, …may not even be probabilities…” (Cox and
Mayo 2010, 299)
• No agreement on rival systems* for default/non-subjective
priors
• The reconciliation leads to violations of the LP, forfeiting
Bayesian coherence while not fully error statistical
(casualty for Bayesians?)
*Invariance, maximum entropy, frequentist matching

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6. A key battle in the statistics wars
(old and new):
P-values vs posteriors
• P-value can be small, but Pr(H0|x) not small, or
even large.
• T
o a Bayesian this shows P-values exaggerate
evidence against.

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• “[T]he reason that Bayesians can regard P-
values as overstating the evidence against the
null is simply a reflection of the fact that
Bayesians can disagree sharply with each other“
(Stephen Senn 2002, 2442)

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Some regard this as a Bayesian family feud
(“spike and smear”)
• Whether to test a point null hypothesis, a lump of
prior probability on H0
Xi ~ N(μ, σ2)
H0: μ = 0 vs. H1: μ ≠ 0.
• Depending on how you spike and how you smear,
an α significant result can even correspond to
Pr(H0|x) = (1 – α)! (e.g., 0.95)

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• A deeper casualty is assuming there ought to be
agreement between quantities measuring
different things

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7. Battles between officials,
agencies, journal editors—and
their (unintended) consequences

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ASA (President’s) Task Force on
Statistical Significance and
Replicability (2019-2021)
The Task Force (1 page) states:
“P-values and significance testing, properly applied
and interpreted, are important tools that should not be
abandoned.”
“Much of the controversy surrounding statistical
significance can be dispelled through a better
appreciation of uncertainty, variability, multiplicity, and
replicability”. (Benjamini et al. 2021)

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The ASA President’s Task Force:
Linda Young, National Agric Stats, U of Florida (Co-Chair)
Xuming He, University of Michigan (Co-Chair)
Yoav Benjamini, Tel Aviv University
Dick De Veaux, Williams College (ASA Vice President)
Bradley Efron, Stanford University
Scott Evans, George Washington U (ASA Pubs Rep)
Mark Glickman, Harvard University (ASA Section Rep)
Barry Graubard, National Cancer Institute
Xiao-Li Meng, Harvard University
Vijay Nair, Wells Fargo and University of Michigan
Nancy Reid, University of Toronto
Stephen Stigler, The University of Chicago
Stephen Vardeman, Iowa State University
Chris Wikle, University of Missouri

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The task force was created to stem
casualties of an ASA Director’s
editorial (2019)*
• “declarations of ‘statistical significance’ be
abandoned” (Wasserstein, Schirm & Lazar 2019)
• You may use P-values, but don’t assess them by
preset thresholds (e.g., .05, .01,.005): No
significance/no threshold view
*2022 disclaimer

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Some (unintended) casualties
• Appearance that statistics is withdrawing tools for a
major task to which scientists look to statistics: to
distinguish genuine effects from noise.
• And even that this is ASA policy, which it’s not

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Most serious casualty: Researchers lost little time:
“Given the recent discussions to abandon
significance testing it may be useful to move away
from controlling type I error entirely in trial
designs.” (Ryan et al. 2020, radiation oncology)
Useful for whom?

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Not for our skeptical consumer of
statistics
• To evaluate a researcher’s claim of benefits of a
radiation treatment, she wants to know: How many
chances did they give themselves to find benefit
even if spurious (data dredging, optional stopping)
• Not enough that their informative prior favors the
intervention—“trust us, we’re Bayesians”

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No tests, no falsification
• If you cannot say about any results, ahead of time,
they will not be allowed to count in favor of a claim
C — if you deny any threshold — then you do not
have a test of C
• Most would balk at methods with error probabilities
over 50% — violating Cox’s weak repeated
sampling principle
• N-P had an undecidable region

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Some say: We do not worry about
Type I error control: All null
hypotheses are false?
1. The claim “We know all nulls are false” boils down
to all models are strictly idealizations—but it does
not follow you know all effects are real
2. Not just Type I errors go, all error probabilities,
Type II, magnitude, sign depend on the sampling
distribution

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Reformulate tests
• I’ve long argued against misuses of significance
tests
I introduce a reformulation of tests in terms of
discrepancies (effect sizes) that are and are not
severely-tested SEV(Test T, data x, claim C)
• In a nutshell: one tests several discrepancies
from a test hypothesis and infers those well or
poorly warranted
Mayo1991-2018; Mayo and Spanos (2006); Mayo and Cox (2006);
Mayo and Hand (2022)

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Avoid misinterpreting a 2SE
significant result

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What about fallacies of
non-significant results?
• Not evidence of no discrepancy, but not
uninformative even for simple significance tests—
• Minimally: Test wasn’t capable of distinguishing
the effect from sampling variability
• May also be able to find upper bounds μ1

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Why do some accounts say a result just significant
at level α is stronger evidence of (𝝁 > 𝝁1) as
POW(𝝁1) increases?
One explanation is the following comparative analysis:
Let x = Test T rejects H0 just at α = .02
Pr(x;!1)
Pr(x;!0)
=
POW(!1)
α
POW(µ1) = Pr(Test T rejects H0; µ1)—the numerator.
As µ1 increases, POW(µ1) in numerator increases, so
the more evidence (µ > µ1)—but this is wrong!

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The skeptical consumer of statistics: show me what
you’ve done to rule out ways you can be wrong.
• Biasing selection effects alter a method’s error
probing capacities
These endanger all methods, but many methods lack
the antenna to pick up on them.

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Fisherian and N-P tests can block threats to
error control, but pathological battles result in
their being viewed as an inconsistent hybrid
• Where Fisherians can’t use power, N-P can’t
report attained P-values—forfeits features
they each need

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Can keep the best from both Fisher and N-P: Use
error probabilities inferentially
• What alters error probabilities
• alters error probing capabilities
• alters well testedness

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Rivals to error statistical accounts condition on the
data: import of data is through likelihood ratios (LP)
(e.g., Bayes factors, likelihood ratios)
So error probabilities drop out
• To the LP holder: what could have happened
but didn’t is to consider “imaginary data”
• To the severe tester, probabilists are robbed
from a main way to block spurious results
The error statistician and LP holders talk past each
other

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Bayesians may block inferences based on
biasing selection effects without appealing to
error probabilities:
• high prior belief probabilities to H0 (no effect)
can result in a high posterior probability to H0:
Casualties:
• Puts blame in wrong place
• How to obtain and interpret them
• Increased flexibility

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Recent feuds among statistical thought-leaders
lead some to recommend “abandoning”
significance & P-value thresholds
Casualties:
• A bad argument: don’t use a method because it
may be used badly.
• No thresholds, no tests, no falsification
• Harder to hold researchers accountable for
biasing selection effects
• No tests of assumptions
Mayo and Hand (2022)

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• We reformulate tests to report the extent of
discrepancies that are and are not indicated
with severity
• Avoids fallacies
• Reveals casualties of equating concepts
from schools with different aims
• If time:
confidence intervals are also improved;
with CIs it’s “the CI only” movement that’s the
casualty

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In appraising statistical reforms ask:
• what’s their notion of probability?*
• What’s their account of statistical evidence
(LP?)
*If the parameter has a genuine frequentist
distribution, frequentists can use it too—
deductive updating

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• A silver lining to distinguishing rival concepts–can
use different methods for different contexts
• Some Bayesians may find their foundations for
science in error statistics
• Stop refighting the stat wars (by 2034?)

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• Attempts to “reconcile” tools with different aims
lead to increased conceptual confusion.

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In the context of the skeptical
consumer of statistics, methods
should be:
• directly altered by biasing selection effects
• able to falsify claims statistically,
• able to test statistical model assumptions.
• able to block inferences that violate minimal
severity

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For those contexts: we shouldn’t
throw out the error control baby with
the bad statistics bathwater

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