Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work

Nov 11, 2009Download as ppt, pdf1 like511 views

Migration Statistics Improvement Work presentation by Nigel Swier, ONS Centre for Demography. Thursday 5th November 2009

Migration Statistics Improvement Work Nigel Swier ONS Centre for Demography

Context Migration is a key part of population change It is difficult to measure There is no direct source or register Estimated using surveys and other sources

Importance of Population Estimates Local authority resource allocation Planning and monitoring service provision e.g. education and health services Grossing up survey results e.g. Labour Force Survey Denominators in the derivation of rates e.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility rates, performance indicators

Work Programme Data sharing legal gateways Schools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data Statistical research and development Source data improvements e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys Work in kind by other government departments e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs Reporting strategy User engagement

Already Implemented Improvements to methods in 2007 distribution of migration, emigration modelling Improved port survey Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS More coherent migration reporting Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple outputs across government Indicators of migration and improved timeliness National level estimates of short-term migration

Next Improvement Package Distribution of international migration using administrative data Student adjustments using HESA data Refinements to previous methods Local level short term migration estimates Quality measures around population estimates Indicators and early migration outputs

What changes numbers? Distribution of international migration Issue : Current method uses 2001 Census – out of date distributions? Solution : Use timely administrative sources in conjunction Internal migration flows Issue : Current source (patient registers) can be slow at recording moves e.g. of students Solution : Enhance with HESA student data which includes term-time address

Quality Assurance Published QA Strategy (June 2009) ONS development protocols met (Methdology QA panels) External reference panels in development Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-check outcomes Expert peer review (academics etc) Consultation and engagement

Consultation Indicative impacts published 30 November Impact of improvements for all LAs presented Supporting methodology documentation Consultation period to 1 8 January 2010 Opportunity for users to provide input Seven regional roadshow seminars in December Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester, Llandindrod Wells Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010

Next Phase More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes More data sharing gateways Linking and matching between sources E-Borders roll-out Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK Better quality measures Ability to make statements about confidence in figures 2011 Census Basis of estimation for the next decade

Keeping up to date Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk /imps Implementation seminars Consultation period Email: imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work

1. Migration Statistics Improvement Work Nigel Swier ONS Centre for Demography

2. Context Migration is a key part of population change It is difficult to measure There is no direct source or register Estimated using surveys and other sources

3. Context - Change

4. Importance of Population Estimates Local authority resource allocation Planning and monitoring service provision e.g. education and health services Grossing up survey results e.g. Labour Force Survey Denominators in the derivation of rates e.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility rates, performance indicators

5. Work Programme Data sharing legal gateways Schools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data Statistical research and development Source data improvements e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys Work in kind by other government departments e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs Reporting strategy User engagement

6. Already Implemented Improvements to methods in 2007 distribution of migration, emigration modelling Improved port survey Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS More coherent migration reporting Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple outputs across government Indicators of migration and improved timeliness National level estimates of short-term migration

7. Next Improvement Package Distribution of international migration using administrative data Student adjustments using HESA data Refinements to previous methods Local level short term migration estimates Quality measures around population estimates Indicators and early migration outputs

8. What changes numbers? Distribution of international migration Issue : Current method uses 2001 Census – out of date distributions? Solution : Use timely administrative sources in conjunction Internal migration flows Issue : Current source (patient registers) can be slow at recording moves e.g. of students Solution : Enhance with HESA student data which includes term-time address

9. Quality Assurance Published QA Strategy (June 2009) ONS development protocols met (Methdology QA panels) External reference panels in development Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-check outcomes Expert peer review (academics etc) Consultation and engagement

10. Consultation Indicative impacts published 30 November Impact of improvements for all LAs presented Supporting methodology documentation Consultation period to 1 8 January 2010 Opportunity for users to provide input Seven regional roadshow seminars in December Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester, Llandindrod Wells Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010

11. Next Phase More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes More data sharing gateways Linking and matching between sources E-Borders roll-out Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK Better quality measures Ability to make statements about confidence in figures 2011 Census Basis of estimation for the next decade

12. Keeping up to date Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk /imps Implementation seminars Consultation period Email: imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work

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